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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Azure Rayloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 15 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
60%

Azure Ray

Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 14 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 10 games
70%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
fy · 8 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
262 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 426 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
201 picks · 265 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
182 picks · 257 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 366 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
171 picks · 103 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 318 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 70%
Hero pool strength59% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
Shopify Rebellion 37%Azure Ray 63%
The model gave 63% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArteezy
52% · 155 games52% · 26 games
Chaos Knightlou
Chaos Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackSabeRLight-
45% · 17 games56% · 139 games
PangolierChalice
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAbed
48% · 93 games36% · 47 games
KunkkaSomnus
Kunkka
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
50% · 47 games50% · 53 games
Invokerfy
Invoker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFly
45% · 17 games56% · 64 games
Pugna天命
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct31:38
Shopify Rebellion 38%Azure Ray 62%
The model gave 62% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
54% · 89 games46% · 32 games
Spectrelou
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
56% · 210 games41% · 115 games
Earth SpiritSomnus
Earth Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
44% · 59 games53% · 132 games
Dark SeerChalice
Dark Seer
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
48% · 60 games59% · 197 games
Clockwerkfy
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
47% · 92 games48% · 34 games
Ancient Apparition天命
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2