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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%

Thunder Awaken

Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
262 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 424 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
201 picks · 265 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
182 picks · 257 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 366 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
171 picks · 103 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 318 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:21
Team Liquid 70%Thunder Awaken 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightmiCKe
57% · 16 games56% · 13 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Sniper
SniperNisha
43% · 3 games60% · 27 games
WindrangerILICH-
Windranger
Phoenix
Phoenixzai
36% · 29 games55% · 38 games
GrimstrokeMjz
Grimstroke
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
50% · 6 games
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoxi
40% · 24 games
Game 2prediction correct36:33
Team Liquid 74%Thunder Awaken 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
47% · 16 games47% · 14 games
Lone DruidSmiling Knight
Lone Druid
Invoker
InvokerNisha
36% · 17 games46% · 66 games
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Centaur Warrunner
Kunkka
Kunkkazai
56% · 15 games56% · 27 games
Ancient ApparitionMjz
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
53% · 21 game
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
58% · 38 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 87%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2