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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
54%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%

Evil Geniuses

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 25 games
32%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Matthew · 24 games
42%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Matthew · 19 games
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
42%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 417 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 265 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
179 picks · 255 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
173 picks · 364 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 315 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
169 picks · 102 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 21%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total92% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Team Spirit 79%Evil Geniuses 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
52% · 21 game39% · 25 games
SpectrePakazs
Spectre
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYatoro
50% · 51 game49% · 223 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
55% · 229 games42% · 76 games
Earth SpiritChris Luck
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
57% · 58 games54% · 83 games
DawnbreakerMatthew
Dawnbreaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
51% · 139 games43% · 91 game
Vengeful SpiritPanda
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct39:36
Team Spirit 78%Evil Geniuses 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 58:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
50% · 45 games39% · 21 game
BristlebackWisper
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastLarl
56% · 184 games38% · 43 games
PudgePakazs
Pudge
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
50% · 206 games50% · 299 games
PangolierChris Luck
Pangolier
Axe
AxeCollapse
51% · 31 game48% · 167 games
Crystal MaidenMatthew
Crystal Maiden
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
58% · 128 games49% · 64 games
GrimstrokePanda
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 92%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2