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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
46%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 18 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Sneyking · 18 games
39%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 34 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 32 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 21 game
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
OmaR · 18 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 18 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 417 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 265 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
179 picks · 255 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
173 picks · 364 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 315 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
169 picks · 102 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:32
Tundra Esports 57%PSG Quest 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:27:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
52% · 71 game56% · 147 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Doom
Doom33
51% · 140 games51% · 67 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Zeus
ZeusTopson
49% · 59 games52% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNine
48% · 65 games45% · 114 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
53% · 111 games44% · 94 games
TidehunterTobi
Tidehunter
Game 2prediction correct44:41
Tundra Esports 56%PSG Quest 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:08:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pugna
PugnaTopson
45% · 65 games42% · 41 game
LunaTA2000
Luna
Spectre
SpectreSkiter
53% · 61 game53% · 233 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Bristleback
Bristleback33
40% · 12 games54% · 39 games
ViperTobi
Viper
Rubick
RubickNine
45% · 434 games55% · 308 games
Nature's ProphetKaori
Nature's Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSneyking
55% · 195 games48% · 146 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2