The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 8 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Talon Esports
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 20 games
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
Batridersignature
Q · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Oli · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
201 picks · 417 bans
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 265 bans
Sven
179 picks · 255 bans
Beastmaster
173 picks · 364 bans
Dark Seer
170 picks · 315 bans
Skywrath Mage
169 picks · 102 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 35%
Hero pool strength55% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
Keyd Stars 31%Talon Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaCostabile
Naga Siren23savage
Earth Spirit4nalog
PangolierMikoto
BristlebackFCR
DawnbreakerJabz
TuskKingrd
TinyQ
GrimstrokeKJ
PugnaOli
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Keyd Stars 32%Talon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCostabile
Terrorblade23savage
Night StalkerFCR
InvokerMikoto
Kunkka4nalog
DawnbreakerJabz
MiranaKingrd
PugnaOli
UndyingKJ
TuskQ
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 82%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2