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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 15 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
60%

BETBOOM TEAM

Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 37 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 30 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 30 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 29 games
62%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 27 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
65%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Pure~ · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 417 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 265 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
179 picks · 255 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
173 picks · 364 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 315 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
169 picks · 102 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total65% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:27
Shopify Rebellion 43%BETBOOM TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArteezy
58% · 32 games50% · 28 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
38% · 74 games41% · 31 game
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
PuckAbed
42% · 126 games56% · 116 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCr1t-
54% · 45 games66% · 58 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFly
57% · 26 games45% · 70 games
Vengeful SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Shopify Rebellion 40%BETBOOM TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSabeRLight-
52% · 173 games39% · 113 games
TerrorbladeNightfall
Terrorblade
Sven
SvenArteezy
56% · 102 games48% · 40 games
Centaur WarrunnerPure~
Centaur Warrunner
Zeus
ZeusAbed
47% · 65 games46% · 69 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
51% · 83 games52% · 118 games
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroFly
56% · 57 games52% · 140 games
TechiesSave-
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 65%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2