The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 22 games
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
Medusasignature
shiro · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 17 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
201 picks · 417 bans
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 265 bans
Sven
179 picks · 255 bans
Beastmaster
173 picks · 364 bans
Dark Seer
170 picks · 315 bans
Skywrath Mage
169 picks · 102 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:12
LGD Gaming 74%beastcoast 26%
The model gave 74% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:32.
Game 2prediction correct36:11
LGD Gaming 74%beastcoast 26%
The model gave 74% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 74%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2