?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 15 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Cr1t- · 15 games
20%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
201 picks · 415 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 264 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
179 picks · 254 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
172 picks · 364 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
170 picks · 315 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
168 picks · 102 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Shopify Rebellion 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenArteezy
52% · 120 games50% · 62 games
LifestealermiCKe
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaAbed
42% · 57 games48% · 121 game
Spirit Breakerzai
Spirit Breaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
55% · 179 games46% · 95 games
Earth SpiritNisha
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
46% · 91 game60% · 191 game
Nature's ProphetBoxi
Nature's Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFly
46% · 42 games42% · 20 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct29:37
Shopify Rebellion 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidArteezy
57% · 56 games39% · 53 games
Chaos KnightmiCKe
Chaos Knight
Invoker
InvokerAbed
51% · 52 games51% · 53 games
Razorzai
Razor
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
63% · 40 games48% · 51 game
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
44% · 58 games45% · 131 game
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
55% · 110 games49% · 28 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2