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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 42 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 40 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 32 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 30 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 25 games
48%
Techies
Techies
Antares · 24 games
50%

Team SMG

Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 8 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 7 games
29%
Techies
Techies
AhFu · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 412 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 263 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
178 picks · 254 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
172 picks · 362 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 315 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
168 picks · 100 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
9Pandas 57%Team SMG 43%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRAMZES666
54% · 192 games51% · 58 games
Phantom AssassinMidOne
Phantom Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshakerkiyotaka
53% · 109 games48% · 126 games
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
Spirit Breaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
47% · 72 games58% · 306 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingSolo
52% · 240 games42% · 89 games
Dark WillowAhFu
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAntares
49% · 87 games44% · 121 game
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct39:23
9Pandas 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenRAMZES666
56% · 104 games51% · 134 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
48% · 88 games45% · 66 games
Phantom AssassinMidOne
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterMieRo
48% · 98 games46% · 90 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaSolo
49% · 81 game55% · 56 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Bane
BaneAntares
47% · 20 games53% · 45 games
GrimstrokeJaunuel
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 63%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2