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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 43 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 39 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
59%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 39 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 37 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 35 games
63%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 34 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
57%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 275 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
486 picks · 558 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
453 picks · 359 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 348 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 328 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
351 picks · 832 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
344 picks · 844 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 170 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:28
HULIGANI 36%Nigma Galaxy 64%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyssnovv1
45% · 455 games51% · 266 games
Windrangerrincyq
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarMirage
51% · 294 games49% · 499 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Axe
AxeCorrupted
51% · 161 game63% · 151 game
LargoDavai
Largo
Silencer
SilencerRESPECT
46% · 148 games46% · 332 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
55% · 373 games47% · 183 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct13:17
HULIGANI 35%Nigma Galaxy 65%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidssnovv1
52% · 85 games48% · 186 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
49% · 180 games57% · 109 games
LargoDavai
Largo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
48% · 404 games49% · 547 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
49% · 314 games52% · 130 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerRESPECT
45% · 137 games53% · 148 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 75%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2