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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 13 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
Chalice · 9 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
fy · 8 games
100%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 8 games
50%

Thunder Awaken

Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 411 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
198 picks · 263 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
178 picks · 254 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
172 picks · 362 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 315 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
168 picks · 100 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
Azure Ray 59%Thunder Awaken 41%
The model gave 59% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 12:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenlou
58% · 28 games54% · 10 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerChalice
47% · 9 games48% · 106 games
Spirit BreakerILICH-
Spirit Breaker
Muerta
Muertafy
29% · 3 games50% · 16 games
Ancient ApparitionMjz
Ancient Apparition
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSomnus
48% · 18 games
Batrider
Batrider天命
52% · 74 games
Game 2prediction correct58:23
Azure Ray 61%Thunder Awaken 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectrelou
48% · 15 games52% · 225 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSomnus
46% · 9 games45% · 66 games
KunkkaILICH-
Kunkka
Silencer
SilencerChalice
53% · 131 game50% · 116 games
Shadow DemonMjz
Shadow Demon
Doom
Doomfy
50% · 126 games
Treant Protector
Treant Protector天命
51% · 126 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 67%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2