The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 24 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Collapse · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 16 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
198 picks · 405 bans
Vengeful Spirit
193 picks · 263 bans
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
Beastmaster
171 picks · 361 bans
Dark Seer
169 picks · 313 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Skywrath Mage
166 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total88% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:31
Team Spirit 88%Entity 12%
The model gave 88% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:13.
Game 2prediction correct47:25
Team Spirit 88%Entity 12%
The model gave 88% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 88%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2