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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team SMGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 24 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Matthew · 24 games
42%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Matthew · 19 games
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
42%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
76%

Team SMG

Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 8 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 7 games
29%
Techies
Techies
AhFu · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 405 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
192 picks · 262 bans
52%
Sven
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
171 picks · 361 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 311 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
166 picks · 100 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:9
Evil Geniuses 37%Team SMG 63%
The model gave 63% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPakazs
46% · 60 games56% · 205 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaChris Luck
41% · 60 games47% · 14 games
BristlebackMinD_ContRoL
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
45% · 144 games56% · 93 games
SlarkMidOne
Slark
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMatthew
54% · 208 games48% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightAhFu
Keeper of the Light
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanda
44% · 71 game55% · 153 games
BatriderJaunuel
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct20:32
Evil Geniuses 37%Team SMG 63%
The model gave 63% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
51% · 144 games46% · 65 games
LifestealerMidOne
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaChris Luck
50% · 72 games56% · 344 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
52% · 73 games57% · 99 games
EarthshakerMinD_ContRoL
Earthshaker
Warlock
WarlockPanda
45% · 69 games45% · 157 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickMatthew
47% · 408 games50% · 101 game
Dark WillowAhFu
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2