The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 8 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 5 games
Windranger
4nalog · 5 games
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 34 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 32 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 20 games
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
Miranasignature
OmaR · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 18 games
Marssignature
ATF · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
195 picks · 404 bans
Vengeful Spirit
191 picks · 262 bans
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
Beastmaster
171 picks · 360 bans
Dark Seer
169 picks · 311 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Skywrath Mage
165 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:31
Keyd Stars 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 59:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCostabile
MedusaTA2000
Spirit BreakerFCR
PangolierNo!ob
Primal Beast4nalog
TidehunterTobi
Skywrath MageKingrd
PhoenixKaori
UndyingKJ
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 2prediction missed33:36
Keyd Stars 55%PSG Quest 45%
The model gave 55% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 58:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightCostabile
Templar AssassinTA2000
Invoker4nalog
PuckNo!ob
ViperFCR
OmniknightTobi
Treant ProtectorKJ
HoodwinkOmaR
TuskKingrd
Vengeful SpiritKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2