The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Doomsignature
MieRo · 42 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 40 games
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 32 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 29 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
Rubick
Antares · 25 games
Techies
Antares · 24 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
194 picks · 401 bans
Vengeful Spirit
190 picks · 260 bans
Sven
175 picks · 253 bans
Beastmaster
171 picks · 360 bans
Dark Seer
169 picks · 311 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Skywrath Mage
165 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:23
9Pandas 48%Entity 52%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 43:38.
Game 2prediction correct7:28
9Pandas 48%Entity 52%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 21:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2