The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
Techies
Fng · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 7 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 7 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 39 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 34 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 33 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 31 game
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 31 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 29 games
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
Underlordsignature
Ace · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
194 picks · 401 bans
Vengeful Spirit
190 picks · 260 bans
Sven
175 picks · 253 bans
Beastmaster
171 picks · 360 bans
Dark Seer
169 picks · 311 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Skywrath Mage
165 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total87% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:27
Virtus.pro 29%Gaimin Gladiators 71%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSquad1x
Spectredyrachyo
GyrocopterKiritych
NecrophosQuinn
Primal BeastNoticed
DawnbreakerAce
Vengeful Spiritsayuw
InvokertOfu
Treant ProtectorFng
WarlockSeleri
Game 2prediction correct20:32
Virtus.pro 25%Gaimin Gladiators 75%
The model gave 75% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 48:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackKiritych
Morphlingdyrachyo
ZeusSquad1x
NecrophosQuinn
RazorNoticed
Wraith KingAce
Tusksayuw
MuertatOfu
GrimstrokeFng
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 87%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2