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The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
100%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
25%

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 19 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 15 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Cr1t- · 15 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 395 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
188 picks · 258 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
173 picks · 251 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
170 picks · 356 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
169 picks · 309 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
164 picks · 98 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 32%
Hero pool strength58% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:19
Thunder Awaken 55%Shopify Rebellion 45%
The model gave 55% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
44% · 11 games50% · 4 games
LunaArteezy
Luna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerILICH-
40% · 35 games65% · 24 games
LinaAbed
Lina
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMjz
57% · 32 games54% · 10 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
46% · 22 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
43% · 18 games
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed33:38
Thunder Awaken 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:02:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSmiling Knight
43% · 18 games68% · 11 games
MuertaArteezy
Muerta
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerILICH-
48% · 74 games47% · 44 games
Templar AssassinAbed
Templar Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
46% · 105 games63% · 4 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
60% · 97 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
49% · 41 game
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2