The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
Pugna
Lelis · 7 games
Anti-Magesignature
YamSun · 6 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
258 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
192 picks · 393 bans
Vengeful Spirit
188 picks · 258 bans
Sven
172 picks · 250 bans
Beastmaster
170 picks · 354 bans
Dark Seer
169 picks · 309 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Skywrath Mage
163 picks · 98 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 37%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:29
nouns 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:53.
Game 2prediction correct24:26
nouns 71%beastcoast 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 46:32.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2