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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tiny
Mac · 18 games
56%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
44%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 14 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
46%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 47 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 37 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 37 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 33 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 31 game
74%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
43%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
dEsire · 26 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 272 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 553 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
463 picks · 373 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 349 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
389 picks · 332 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
354 picks · 832 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
351 picks · 850 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
331 picks · 192 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:38
Team Nemesis 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:11:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistrubikon155
56% · 113 games46% · 121 game
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light4nalog
57% · 149 games55% · 172 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
52% · 189 games50% · 111 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Rubick
RubickLelis
50% · 292 games40% · 109 games
EnchantressMoOz
Enchantress
Lich
LichYamSun
38% · 40 games49% · 270 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct14:43
Team Nemesis 37%Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerrubikon155
52% · 301 game46% · 330 games
TinyKami
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordJabz
52% · 231 game48% · 306 games
BatriderMikSa`
Batrider
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain4nalog
51% · 390 games49% · 325 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYamSun
50% · 64 games47% · 36 games
TechiesdEsire
Techies
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLelis
58% · 101 game48% · 90 games
ClockwerkMoOz
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed29:21
Team Nemesis 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyrubikon155
49% · 277 games52% · 190 games
KezKami
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
47% · 254 games50% · 200 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Largo
LargoJabz
63% · 92 games46% · 254 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
55% · 341 game46% · 351 game
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressYamSun
45% · 135 games49% · 104 games
TechiesdEsire
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 75%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3