The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
Rubick
Matthew · 24 games
Snapfireoften banned
Matthew · 24 games
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 23 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Matthew · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
Legion Commandersignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
257 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
189 picks · 384 bans
Vengeful Spirit
181 picks · 257 bans
Beastmaster
169 picks · 351 bans
Sven
169 picks · 247 bans
Dark Seer
168 picks · 303 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 226 bans
Skywrath Mage
161 picks · 95 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:20
Evil Geniuses 46%Entity 54%
The model gave 54% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 31:49.
Game 2prediction correct9:38
Evil Geniuses 46%Entity 54%
The model gave 54% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 29:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 54%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2