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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
pma · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
Riddys · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 11 games
27%
Magnus
Magnus
pma · 11 games
55%

Team Tickles

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Shad · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
NARMAN · 5 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Shad · 5 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
80%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 4 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
285 picks · 140 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 406 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
190 picks · 249 bans
49%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
179 picks · 257 bans
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
178 picks · 328 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
177 picks · 379 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
172 picks · 103 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:34
Natus Vincere Junior 34%Team Tickles 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkgotthejuice
51% · 94 games46% · 51 game
Phantom AssassinShad
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNiku
50% · 84 games49% · 52 games
InvokerAdzantick
Invoker
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerpma
58% · 98 games44% · 57 games
LycanBOOM
Lycan
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritRiddys
51% · 65 games47% · 148 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Bane
BaneDaze
55% · 33 games51% · 66 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct12:32
Natus Vincere Junior 33%Team Tickles 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
47% · 49 games58% · 72 games
SvenShad
Sven
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritpma
43% · 54 games46% · 40 games
KunkkaAdzantick
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
43% · 82 games55% · 60 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNiku
46% · 9 games54% · 136 games
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Nature's Prophet
Doom
DoomDaze
51% · 150 games52% · 36 games
MuertaNARMAN
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 76%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2