2022 Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Китайwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Монголияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Китай
No games played over 6 months.
Монголия
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshrac
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
285 picks · 139 bans
Pangolier
198 picks · 405 bans
Ember Spirit
190 picks · 249 bans
Dark Seer
178 picks · 328 bans
Vengeful Spirit
178 picks · 256 bans
Beastmaster
175 picks · 379 bans
Skywrath Mage
172 picks · 103 bans
Sven
170 picks · 245 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 76%
Hero pool strength55% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Китай
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Китай 79%Монголия 21%
The model gave 79% on Китай — the game was taken by Монголия.
Game 2prediction correct
Китай 79%Монголия 21%
The model gave 79% on Китай — the game was taken by Китай.
Game 3prediction correct
Китай 79%Монголия 21%
The model gave 79% on Китай — the game was taken by Китай.
Model check result
Model favoriteКитай · 79%
Series resultКитай 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3