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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 10 games
30%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
CeMaTheSlayeR · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Mr. Luck · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
75%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
33%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Mo13ei · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
292 picks · 142 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 409 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
197 picks · 262 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
184 picks · 378 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
181 picks · 340 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
177 picks · 253 bans
53%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
174 picks · 106 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 239 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:16
MoneyMakers 55%MarsBet Team 45%
The model gave 55% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLukas
47% · 104 games54% · 66 games
Templar AssassinOtaker
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaEgor
50% · 61 game46% · 27 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
46% · 107 games51% · 54 games
Queen of PainMo13ei
Queen of Pain
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCeMaTheSlayeR
53% · 38 games52% · 79 games
Skywrath MageJeezy
Skywrath Mage
53% · 84 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct35:31
MoneyMakers 54%MarsBet Team 46%
The model gave 54% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 50:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
47% · 63 games61% · 51 game
PuckMo13ei
Puck
Invoker
InvokerEgor
47% · 77 games55% · 48 games
SlarkOtaker
Slark
Warlock
WarlockCeMaTheSlayeR
49% · 38 games37% · 8 games
AxeMr. Luck
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
41% · 90 games53% · 66 games
Skywrath MageJeezy
Skywrath Mage
54% · 95 games
TuskLeBronDota
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 56%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2