Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Satanic · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
pJonn · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
aik · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
pJonn · 1 game
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 13 games
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
Svensignature
Daxak · 13 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 11 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
292 picks · 143 bans
Pangolier
205 picks · 408 bans
Ember Spirit
197 picks · 263 bans
Beastmaster
186 picks · 377 bans
Dark Seer
181 picks · 340 bans
Skywrath Mage
176 picks · 107 bans
Vengeful Spirit
176 picks · 251 bans
Sven
169 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength67% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:8
Yellow Submarine 32%Level UP 68%
The model gave 68% on Level UP — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSatanic
Queen of PainLorenof
Primal BeastpJonn
SlarkV-Tune
Shadow Demonrue
RazorOwnedMe
Marciaik
Earth Spiritswedenstrong
50% · 53 games
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
Game 2prediction correct8:26
Yellow Submarine 35%Level UP 65%
The model gave 65% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerSatanic
Anti-MageV-Tune
TidehunterpJonn
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dark Willowrue
DawnbreakerOwnedMe
Treant Protectoraik
Shadow DemonMiLAN
47% · 43 games
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
Game 3prediction correct14:30
Yellow Submarine 35%Level UP 65%
The model gave 65% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
UrsaV-Tune
LycanpJonn
Storm SpiritLorenof
Nature's Prophetaik
DawnbreakerOwnedMe
Dark Willowrue
Shadow DemonMiLAN
39% · 61 game
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 79%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3