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2022 Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Монголияwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Кыргызстанloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Монголия

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%

Кыргызстан

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
80%
Lich
Lich
Max · 4 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Max · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
67%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Kami · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Max · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
296 picks · 146 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
207 picks · 410 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
200 picks · 268 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
189 picks · 380 bans
49%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
182 picks · 343 bans
52%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
181 picks · 108 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
176 picks · 251 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
170 picks · 257 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Монголия
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Монголия 58%Кыргызстан 42%
The model gave 58% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия.
Game 2prediction correct
Монголия 58%Кыргызстан 42%
The model gave 58% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 58%
Series resultМонголия 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2