Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:0
StoRmloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Satanic · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
pJonn · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
aik · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
pJonn · 1 game
StoRm
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 17 games
Earthshakersignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 10 games
Shadow Demon
SoNNeikO · 9 games
Techies
OneJey · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
298 picks · 150 bans
Pangolier
210 picks · 409 bans
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 273 bans
Beastmaster
191 picks · 385 bans
Skywrath Mage
184 picks · 109 bans
Dark Seer
183 picks · 348 bans
Storm Spirit
176 picks · 264 bans
Vengeful Spirit
175 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% StoRm
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 30%StoRm 70%
The model gave 70% on StoRm — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 70%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1