2022 Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Казахстанloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Монголияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Казахстан
No games played over 6 months.
Монголия
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshrac
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
297 picks · 150 bans
Pangolier
210 picks · 404 bans
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 273 bans
Beastmaster
191 picks · 381 bans
Dark Seer
183 picks · 346 bans
Skywrath Mage
183 picks · 108 bans
Storm Spirit
176 picks · 264 bans
Vengeful Spirit
175 picks · 248 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 73%
Hero pool strength55% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Казахстан 40%Монголия 60%
The model gave 60% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия.
Game 2prediction missed
Казахстан 40%Монголия 60%
The model gave 60% on Монголия — the game was taken by Казахстан.
Game 3prediction correct
Казахстан 40%Монголия 60%
The model gave 60% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 60%
Series resultМонголия 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3