2022 Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Китайwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Таиландloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Китай
No games played over 6 months.
Таиланд
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
304 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
214 picks · 279 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 408 bans
Beastmaster
195 picks · 385 bans
Skywrath Mage
189 picks · 108 bans
Dark Seer
185 picks · 351 bans
Storm Spirit
182 picks · 268 bans
Vengeful Spirit
174 picks · 247 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Китай
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Китай
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Китай 83%Таиланд 17%
The model gave 83% on Китай — the game was taken by Китай.
Game 2prediction correct
Китай 83%Таиланд 17%
The model gave 83% on Китай — the game was taken by Китай.
Model check result
Model favoriteКитай · 83%
Series resultКитай 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2