Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Brewmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Dark Willow
rue · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
aik · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Satanic · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 1 game
Shadow Demon
rue · 1 game
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 1 game
Team Tickles
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 5 games
Svenoften banned
Shad · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 5 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
NARMAN · 4 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
308 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 287 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 411 bans
Beastmaster
196 picks · 387 bans
Skywrath Mage
191 picks · 109 bans
Storm Spirit
188 picks · 273 bans
Dark Seer
185 picks · 353 bans
Doom
172 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 70%
Hero pool strength66% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:37
Yellow Submarine 27%Team Tickles 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 52:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
RazorBOOM
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Phantom AssassinShad
Phoenixaik
EarthshakerAdzantick
Dark Willowrue
EnchantressNARMAN
49% · 37 games
WarlockDukalis
Game 2prediction correct24:39
Yellow Submarine 29%Team Tickles 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerSatanic
Phantom AssassinShad
KunkkapJonn
OmniknightBOOM
Skywrath Magerue
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Warlockaik
EarthshakerNARMAN
45% · 74 games
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 87%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2