2022 Asian Games · BO1
result vs prediction
Индияloss 0:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Кыргызстанwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Индия
No games played over 6 months.
Кыргызстан
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Lich
Max · 4 games
Warlock
Max · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
Slarkoften banned
Kami · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Max · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
312 picks · 154 bans
Ember Spirit
226 picks · 291 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 416 bans
Beastmaster
197 picks · 398 bans
Skywrath Mage
192 picks · 111 bans
Storm Spirit
191 picks · 279 bans
Dark Seer
190 picks · 358 bans
Doom
174 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Кыргызстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Кыргызстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Индия 25%Кыргызстан 75%
The model gave 75% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Кыргызстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteКыргызстан · 75%
Series resultКыргызстан 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1