?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MoneyMakersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 15 games
53%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 12 games
67%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
64%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
42%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 154 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 300 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
211 picks · 418 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
197 picks · 411 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
197 picks · 112 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
196 picks · 288 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
192 picks · 362 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
178 picks · 265 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:21
KZ TEAM 56%MoneyMakers 44%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
37% · 20 games45% · 43 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierNande
54% · 116 games51% · 52 games
Earth SpiritEgor
Earth Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
56% · 33 games45% · 29 games
WarlockCeMaTheSlayeR
Warlock
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
54% · 7 games52% · 52 games
BaneBignum
Bane
Game 2prediction missed11:37
KZ TEAM 55%MoneyMakers 45%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNande
41% · 53 games60% · 50 games
SvenLukas
Sven
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
49% · 58 games55% · 55 games
Death ProphetEgor
Death Prophet
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainFocus
50% · 53 games46% · 24 games
GrimstrokeCeMaTheSlayeR
Grimstroke
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
48% · 22 games49% · 57 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct24:21
KZ TEAM 58%MoneyMakers 42%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautFocus
44% · 26 games63% · 36 games
RazorLukas
Razor
Invoker
InvokerNande
40% · 87 games58% · 106 games
Templar AssassinEgor
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
44% · 248 games51% · 140 games
Nature's ProphetBignum
Nature's Prophet
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
50% · 157 games52% · 236 games
DisruptorCeMaTheSlayeR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 67%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3