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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Dominic · 16 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
nicky`cool · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 15 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
pma · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 11 games
27%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 156 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 303 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 420 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
198 picks · 292 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
196 picks · 413 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
195 picks · 113 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
193 picks · 366 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
180 picks · 268 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% StoRm
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:41
StoRm 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on StoRm — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
46% · 56 games49% · 91 game
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
54% · 166 games50% · 102 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
56% · 80 games52% · 100 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
52% · 97 games47% · 98 games
MarciDaze
Marci
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
48% · 57 games44% · 65 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct37:32
StoRm 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
54% · 130 games47% · 68 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Sven
SvenDarkLord^
62% · 69 games43% · 88 games
Brewmasterpma
Brewmaster
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
53% · 70 games48% · 98 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordDominic
63% · 50 games39% · 72 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
46% · 83 games48% · 76 games
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed17:35
StoRm 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on StoRm — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
40% · 60 games52% · 75 games
Svengotthejuice
Sven
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
55% · 104 games53% · 164 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehunterDominic
48% · 100 games50% · 76 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
45% · 95 games51% · 78 games
MarciDaze
Marci
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
58% · 119 games45% · 85 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3