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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tickleswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Dominic · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
nicky`cool · 9 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 8 games
50%

Team Tickles

Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 5 games
80%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
100%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Shad · 4 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 4 games
75%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 4 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 156 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 304 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 420 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
198 picks · 294 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
195 picks · 415 bans
48%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
193 picks · 366 bans
52%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
193 picks · 112 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
182 picks · 268 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:12
StoRm 42%Team Tickles 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by StoRm in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
45% · 31 game46% · 53 games
SpectreShad
Spectre
Broodmother
BroodmotherDominic
55% · 45 games44% · 62 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
48% · 76 games48% · 20 games
DazzleAdzantick
Dazzle
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
53% · 118 games54% · 144 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
49% · 26 games61% · 17 games
BaneNARMAN
Bane
Game 2prediction correct26:41
StoRm 40%Team Tickles 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDarkLord^
45% · 56 games47% · 68 games
Phantom AssassinShad
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawDominic
50% · 170 games52% · 45 games
RazorBOOM
Razor
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
48% · 137 games52% · 243 games
PangolierAdzantick
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
53% · 107 games48% · 194 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
48% · 229 games56% · 149 games
Skywrath MageNARMAN
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct0:0
StoRm 39%Team Tickles 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 25265:42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
57% · 251 game40% · 19 games
DazzleAdzantick
Dazzle
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
46% · 49 games51% · 179 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
48% · 219 games51% · 120 games
SvenShad
Sven
Enchantress
EnchantressSoNNeikO
51% · 176 games51% · 346 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Techies
TechiesOneJey
50% · 188 games46% · 219 games
Skywrath MageNARMAN
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 66%
Series resultTeam Tickles 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3