Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
y0nd · 8 games
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 7 games
Primal Beastsignature
erase · 7 games
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
klassnokruto · 6 games
Dark Willow
y0nd · 6 games
Keyd Stars
Snapfireoften banned
FCR · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Windranger
4nalog · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
321 picks · 159 bans
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 307 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 418 bans
Storm Spirit
198 picks · 296 bans
Beastmaster
196 picks · 415 bans
Dark Seer
194 picks · 368 bans
Skywrath Mage
194 picks · 111 bans
Batrider
183 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:26
SIBE Team 49%Keyd Stars 51%
The model gave 51% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
MuertaCostabile
Night Stalkerklassnokruto
Earth Spirit4nalog
Pangoliererase
Centaur WarrunnerFCR
Shadow Demonemptiness
GrimstrokeKingrd
UndyingRein
WarlockKJ
Game 2prediction correct43:31
SIBE Team 52%Keyd Stars 48%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarknesfeer
BristlebackCostabile
Primal Beastklassnokruto
DawnbreakerFCR
Puckerase
Earth Spirit4nalog
Nature's ProphetRein
Shadow DemonKingrd
Vengeful Spiritemptiness
EnchantressKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 53%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2