Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 3 games
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 3 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
324 picks · 160 bans
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 311 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 417 bans
Storm Spirit
199 picks · 298 bans
Beastmaster
197 picks · 416 bans
Dark Seer
196 picks · 370 bans
Skywrath Mage
195 picks · 112 bans
Batrider
183 picks · 276 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:32
MarsBet Team 32%4 Zoomers 68%
The model gave 68% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 37:50.
Game 2prediction missed32:11
MarsBet Team 32%4 Zoomers 68%
The model gave 68% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 27:47.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 68%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2