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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 13 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 11 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 10 games
40%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 15 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
pma · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 160 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
245 picks · 313 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 421 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
201 picks · 305 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
198 picks · 373 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
197 picks · 421 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
195 picks · 113 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
183 picks · 281 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Nemiga Gaming 68%Natus Vincere Junior 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerUlnit
46% · 173 games53% · 72 games
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
49% · 58 games52% · 96 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
49% · 105 games54% · 186 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaHellscream
52% · 30 games52% · 43 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanto
43% · 76 games51% · 45 games
LionDaze
Lion
Game 2prediction correct33:29
Nemiga Gaming 69%Natus Vincere Junior 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
53% · 55 games43% · 75 games
Bloodseekergotthejuice
Bloodseeker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
50% · 76 games49% · 217 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
55% · 114 games54% · 66 games
KunkkaNiku
Kunkka
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetHellscream
55% · 142 games41% · 40 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Marci
MarciPanto
47% · 92 games49% · 81 game
Vengeful SpiritDaze
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2