Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tickleswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 13 games
Silenceroften banned
MiLAN · 13 games
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 11 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Techies
MiLAN · 9 games
Team Tickles
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 4 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Dukalis · 2 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
328 picks · 160 bans
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 314 bans
Pangolier
210 picks · 420 bans
Storm Spirit
201 picks · 307 bans
Dark Seer
200 picks · 372 bans
Beastmaster
197 picks · 422 bans
Skywrath Mage
195 picks · 113 bans
Batrider
183 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
Level UP 52%Team Tickles 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingV-Tune
SvenShad
RazorLorenof
DoomBOOM
Invokerre1bl
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Marciswedenstrong
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
EarthshakerNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed35:31
Level UP 50%Team Tickles 50%
The model gave 50% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 1:13:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightLorenof
DazzleAdzantick
Clinkzre1bl
SvenShad
UrsaV-Tune
DoomNARMAN
WarlockMiLAN
VisageBOOM
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
Treant ProtectorDukalis
Game 3prediction missed8:20
Level UP 55%Team Tickles 45%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenV-Tune
GyrocopterShad
DazzleLorenof
LycanBOOM
Huskarre1bl
InvokerAdzantick
Tuskswedenstrong
WarlockDukalis
GrimstrokeMiLAN
EarthshakerNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 58%
Series resultTeam Tickles 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3