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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 33 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 24 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 23 games
74%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 21 game
62%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
339 picks · 162 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 334 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 427 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
207 picks · 325 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
204 picks · 390 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
200 picks · 436 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
198 picks · 290 bans
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
198 picks · 115 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:33
Team Spirit 64%Shopify Rebellion 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:08:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYatoro
52% · 65 games64% · 128 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
51% · 67 games46% · 56 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
46% · 86 games45% · 53 games
Templar AssassinArteezy
Templar Assassin
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
53% · 39 games48% · 82 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
48% · 112 games45% · 50 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct25:17
Team Spirit 64%Shopify Rebellion 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
52% · 77 games43% · 56 games
GyrocopterArteezy
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
59% · 53 games54% · 85 games
EarthshakerAbed
Earthshaker
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
53% · 43 games48% · 55 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
55% · 90 games40% · 73 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
44% · 35 games50% · 29 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct39:18
Team Spirit 65%Shopify Rebellion 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
53% · 110 games59% · 57 games
AlchemistArteezy
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCollapse
50% · 68 games46% · 130 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
50% · 44 games47% · 29 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
49% · 182 games51% · 138 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
44% · 102 games52% · 152 games
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3