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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 21 game
62%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
69%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 33 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
347 picks · 168 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 350 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 434 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
209 picks · 340 bans
51%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
207 picks · 399 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
207 picks · 369 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
206 picks · 296 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
204 picks · 445 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:39
Shopify Rebellion 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAbed
52% · 92 games54% · 76 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Muerta
MuertaArteezy
53% · 12 games50% · 182 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
48% · 87 games48% · 65 games
Earth SpiritLarl
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
48% · 238 games44% · 109 games
PhoenixMiposhka
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFly
54% · 101 game51% · 98 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed31:17
Shopify Rebellion 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaArteezy
45% · 25 games48% · 60 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAbed
55% · 168 games50% · 229 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
51% · 59 games43% · 74 games
Queen of PainLarl
Queen of Pain
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
52% · 90 games55% · 56 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
45% · 169 games50% · 92 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct24:45
Shopify Rebellion 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAbed
46% · 118 games44% · 98 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerArteezy
52% · 233 games54% · 149 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
42% · 76 games58% · 193 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFly
41% · 82 games55% · 99 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
52% · 108 games54% · 78 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3