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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 56 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 42 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 31 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 29 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 29 games
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 25 games
68%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
46%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
79%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 272 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 551 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
468 picks · 381 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 346 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
390 picks · 333 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 826 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 848 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
335 picks · 196 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:31
MOUZ 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
46% · 317 games50% · 323 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
48% · 173 games57% · 117 games
Kezbottega
Kez
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
47% · 95 games49% · 187 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
45% · 144 games53% · 83 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixTobi
50% · 338 games55% · 357 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed9:20
MOUZ 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyCrystallis
39% · 390 games54% · 213 games
Kezbottega
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
44% · 292 games47% · 479 games
Beastmasterмистер мораль
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
51% · 396 games49% · 698 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
50% · 356 games64% · 152 games
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Phoenix
PhoenixTobi
50% · 255 games52% · 147 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2