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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 33 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%

Tundra Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 26 games
69%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 26 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 176 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 377 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
220 picks · 353 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
219 picks · 314 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
219 picks · 440 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
218 picks · 392 bans
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
214 picks · 407 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
208 picks · 457 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:22
Team Spirit 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
48% · 42 games52% · 52 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Axe
AxeCollapse
47% · 26 gameslittle data
DazzleTopson
Dazzle
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
46% · 48 games50% · 46 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
40% · 34 games56% · 68 games
Skywrath MageNine
Skywrath Mage
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
55% · 64 games49% · 48 games
GrimstrokeSneyking
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Team Spirit 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
50% · 198 games54% · 55 games
Phantom LancerSkiter
Phantom Lancer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
46% · 36 games53% · 143 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Dazzle
DazzleLarl
49% · 16 games50% · 59 games
Earth SpiritTopson
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
46% · 163 games48% · 91 game
Shadow DemonNine
Shadow Demon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
54% · 132 games48% · 197 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2