DreamLeague Season 21 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
Undyingsignature
Fly · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Techiessignature
Save- · 37 games
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 32 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 31 game
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 27 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 26 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Save- · 25 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
361 picks · 176 bans
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 380 bans
Undying
221 picks · 394 bans
Batrider
220 picks · 315 bans
Storm Spirit
220 picks · 356 bans
Pangolier
219 picks · 440 bans
Dark Seer
215 picks · 411 bans
Beastmaster
207 picks · 460 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total71% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:22
Shopify Rebellion 40%BETBOOM TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaArteezy
JuggernautNightfall
KunkkaAbed
InvokergpK~
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Legion CommanderPure~
HoodwinkCr1t-
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
Ancient ApparitionFly
Dark WillowSave-
Game 2prediction missed23:6
Shopify Rebellion 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaArteezy
PuckgpK~
PangolierAbed
Phantom LancerNightfall
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Legion CommanderPure~
EnchantressFly
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
Skywrath MageSave-
Game 3prediction missed27:28
Shopify Rebellion 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 52:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinArteezy
Troll WarlordNightfall
LinaAbed
BeastmasterPure~
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Storm SpiritgpK~
WarlockFly
PhoenixTORONTOTOKYO
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
BaneSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 71%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3