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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 22 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 22 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
48%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 17 games
71%

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silencer
Oli · 26 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 17 games
65%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 16 games
44%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 178 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 395 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
231 picks · 408 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
230 picks · 361 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
222 picks · 338 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 442 bans
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
216 picks · 419 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
213 picks · 395 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:16
Shopify Rebellion 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterArteezy
51% · 40 games50% · 82 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAbed
50% · 58 games50% · 40 games
Razor23savage
Razor
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
56% · 82 games60% · 7 games
OmniknightJabz
Omniknight
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFly
39% · 37 games41% · 50 games
LionQ
Lion
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
48% · 51 game58% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Shopify Rebellion 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinArteezy
39% · 79 games46% · 22 games
Alchemist23savage
Alchemist
Lina
LinaAbed
53% · 80 games50% · 145 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaSabeRLight-
50% · 72 games51% · 58 games
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Warlock
WarlockFly
54% · 20 games53% · 22 games
OracleQ
Oracle
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
57% · 52 games48% · 56 games
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2