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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
REKONIXwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 15 games
53%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 14 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
46%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 13 games
77%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 10 games
80%
Muerta
Muertasignature
dalul · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 271 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 548 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
472 picks · 388 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 350 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
395 picks · 334 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 828 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 854 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
335 picks · 197 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 37%
Hero pool strength53% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total71% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:19
Team Nemesis 41%REKONIX 59%
The model gave 59% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidrubikon155
63% · 44 games46% · 221 game
TinyTraVins
Tiny
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
59% · 122 games49% · 223 games
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
51% · 195 games44% · 109 games
UnderlordFbz
Underlord
Ringmaster
RingmasterLelis
49% · 353 games48% · 147 games
Windrangerdalul
Windranger
Techies
TechiesYamSun
49% · 65 games47% · 79 games
EnchantressVarizh
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct17:41
Team Nemesis 38%REKONIX 62%
The model gave 62% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
50% · 136 games46% · 274 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Tiny
Tinyrubikon155
49% · 345 games49% · 68 games
AlchemistTraVins
Alchemist
Slardar
SlardarJabz
54% · 361 game49% · 297 games
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickPonlo
50% · 257 games51% · 458 games
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Techies
TechiesYamSun
45% · 78 games56% · 80 games
VenomancerVarizh
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct13:37
Team Nemesis 38%REKONIX 62%
The model gave 62% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterrubikon155
48% · 358 games51% · 98 games
KezTraVins
Kez
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
47% · 256 games55% · 226 games
BristlebackFbz
Bristleback
Axe
AxeJabz
47% · 135 games53% · 73 games
Keeper of the LightinYourdreaM
Keeper of the Light
Techies
TechiesPonlo
49% · 82 games53% · 308 games
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYamSun
49% · 35 games48% · 161 game
EnchantressVarizh
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 71%
Series resultREKONIX 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3