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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 33 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 38 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Silencer
Silencer
Kaori · 24 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
53%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
371 picks · 181 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
285 picks · 403 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
239 picks · 415 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
229 picks · 371 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
226 picks · 351 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 448 bans
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
217 picks · 426 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
217 picks · 405 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:28
Team Spirit 64%PSG Quest 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:09:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreYatoro
42% · 29 games50% · 95 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
49% · 327 games49% · 110 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
50% · 241 game55% · 321 game
BeastmasterTobi
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCollapse
51% · 58 games54% · 92 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
43% · 101 game56% · 138 games
Skywrath MageOmaR
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct20:17
Team Spirit 65%PSG Quest 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
49% · 305 games52% · 39 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Necrophos
NecrophosLarl
45% · 16 games56% · 210 games
BeastmasterTobi
Beastmaster
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCollapse
45% · 86 games52% · 151 game
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
49% · 117 games49% · 79 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
43% · 94 games59% · 139 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2