?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 22 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 22 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
48%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 17 games
71%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Io
Iosignature
Boxi · 24 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 24 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 181 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
285 picks · 406 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
241 picks · 416 bans
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
230 picks · 374 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
229 picks · 353 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 447 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
220 picks · 407 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
219 picks · 175 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total70% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:22
Shopify Rebellion 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
53% · 74 games33% · 73 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
57% · 206 games49% · 78 games
Brewmasterzai
Brewmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawAbed
51% · 94 games48% · 71 game
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
48% · 46 games44% · 66 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 84 games59% · 216 games
Nature's ProphetBoxi
Nature's Prophet
Game 2prediction missed36:17
Shopify Rebellion 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 27:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
48% · 47 games61% · 68 games
GyrocoptermiCKe
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAbed
39% · 53 games54% · 13 games
Lone DruidNisha
Lone Druid
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
48% · 59 games48% · 64 games
Legion Commanderzai
Legion Commander
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
48% · 85 games62% · 45 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
46% · 35 games49% · 89 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2