DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Silencer
Oli · 26 games
Rubick
Oli · 19 games
Batridersignature
Q · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 17 games
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
Windrangeroften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
373 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
285 picks · 406 bans
Undying
241 picks · 416 bans
Storm Spirit
230 picks · 374 bans
Batrider
229 picks · 353 bans
Pangolier
222 picks · 447 bans
Morphling
220 picks · 407 bans
Techies
219 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:10
Entity 47%Talon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:24.
Game 2prediction correct13:24
Entity 47%Talon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2