?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Ceb · 21 game
62%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
47%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 17 games
53%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
56%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 37 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 23 games
65%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 181 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 408 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
241 picks · 416 bans
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
229 picks · 375 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
228 picks · 357 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 443 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
221 picks · 176 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
219 picks · 411 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total64% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:8
OG 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by OG in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
57% · 120 games56% · 106 games
Naga SirenShad
Naga Siren
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCeb
50% · 420 games51% · 77 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbzm
48% · 107 games50% · 155 games
Primal BeastTobi
Primal Beast
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderMinD_ContRoL
45% · 142 games49% · 103 games
SilencerKaori
Silencer
45% · 348 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct15:39
OG 40%PSG Quest 60%
The model gave 60% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
48% · 200 games57% · 82 games
SvenShad
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
47% · 258 games47% · 125 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
49% · 53 games54% · 276 games
Nature's ProphetKaori
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskCeb
50% · 309 games44% · 67 games
KunkkaTobi
Kunkka
56% · 270 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2