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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silencer
Oli · 26 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 19 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 17 games
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
56%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Io
Iosignature
Boxi · 24 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 24 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
77%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 181 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 408 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
240 picks · 416 bans
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
231 picks · 374 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
229 picks · 357 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 440 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
221 picks · 177 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
220 picks · 411 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 51%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:19
Talon Esports 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
55% · 208 games53% · 92 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Razor
Razor23savage
48% · 42 games45% · 114 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMikoto
55% · 58 games48% · 140 games
Tidehunterzai
Tidehunter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetQ
47% · 139 games40% · 89 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorOli
59% · 149 games47% · 161 game
PhoenixBoxi
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct16:45
Talon Esports 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
47% · 144 games47% · 60 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Doom
DoomJabz
52% · 179 games51% · 133 games
Templar AssassinNisha
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaMikoto
46% · 49 games51% · 78 games
Earth Spiritzai
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderQ
55% · 160 games51% · 247 games
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
Treant Protector
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
43% · 101 game55% · 115 games
OracleBoxi
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2