DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 35 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 30 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 26 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
373 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 408 bans
Undying
240 picks · 416 bans
Storm Spirit
231 picks · 374 bans
Batrider
229 picks · 357 bans
Pangolier
223 picks · 440 bans
Techies
221 picks · 177 bans
Morphling
220 picks · 411 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 32%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total63% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:39
Entity 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:49.
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Entity 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2